Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints20
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Tobias HarrisRebounds7
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints24
- DeMar DeRozanAssists5
- Andre DrummondRebounds23
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–105
- Q415.0Furkan Korkmaz makes 2-foot driving floating jump shot (Mo Bamba assists)92–105
- Q435.0Paul Reed defensive rebound90–105
- Q438.1Coby White misses 27-foot three point jumper90–105
- Q453.0Mo Bamba makes driving layup (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)90–105
- Q41:08Coby White makes free throw 2 of 288–105
- Q41:08Julian Phillips enters the game for Andre Drummond88–104
- Q41:08Coby White makes free throw 1 of 288–104
- Q41:08Kelly Oubre Jr. personal foul88–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:57Alex Caruso makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)PHI 57 – 64 CHI · CHI 64% → 73% +9CHI 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q35:44De'Anthony Melton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 62 – 66 CHI · PHI 26% → 35% +9PHI 26% → 35%+9 pts
- Q32:34Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)PHI 67 – 73 CHI · PHI 19% → 27% +9PHI 19% → 27%+9 pts
- Q310.0Jevon Carter makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)PHI 71 – 80 CHI · CHI 74% → 83% +9CHI 74% → 83%+9 pts
- Q48:29Dalen Terry makes 22-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)PHI 77 – 85 CHI · CHI 74% → 85% +10CHI 74% → 85%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- CHI 43%
- Fair odds
- CHI -110
- PHI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 113.2 – 114.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +52 | +42 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +46 Elo | PHI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 52.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.9 | Points scored | 110.028th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 112.610th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.8 | Margin | −2.623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 111.322nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 114.020th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.4 | Pace | 97.630th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 10–921st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.