Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints16
- Dalen TerryAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds17
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints31
- Joel EmbiidAssists10
- Joel EmbiidRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–110
- Q42.0shot clock turnover97–110
- Q426.0Adama Sanogo makes tip shot97–110
- Q426.0Adama Sanogo offensive rebound95–110
- Q427.0Jevon Carter misses driving floating jump shot95–110
- Q436.0Adama Sanogo offensive rebound95–110
- Q440.1Terry Taylor misses 27-foot three point jumper95–110
- Q451.1Bulls defensive team rebound95–110
- Q452.1Ricky Council IV misses 27-foot three point jumper95–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:33Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Joel Embiid assists)CHI 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 71% → 74% +3PHI 71% → 74%+3 pts
- Q110:48Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)CHI 0 – 5 PHI · PHI 74% → 79% +5PHI 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q18:13Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)CHI 6 – 14 PHI · PHI 79% → 83% +4PHI 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q17:51Tobias Harris makes 26-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)CHI 8 – 17 PHI · PHI 80% → 84% +4PHI 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q17:31Nicolas Batum makes 26-foot three point shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)CHI 8 – 20 PHI · PHI 84% → 88% +4PHI 84% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -7
- PHI 76%
- Fair odds
- PHI -242
- CHI +242 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 109.0 – 115.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | +123 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | CHI crossed 1 time zone and PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +200 Elo | PHI 76.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 70.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 121.05th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 110.96th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.1 | Margin | +10.12nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 119.13rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 109.24th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.5 | Pace | 101.216th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–10 | Road vs home | 12–47th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+123 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 2–0 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.