Utah Jazz at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints21
- Kris DunnAssists13
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds14
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints25
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists11
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–116
- Q46.0shot clock turnover132–116
- Q427.1Lauri Markkanen defensive rebound132–116
- Q430.1Malik Beasley misses 23-foot three point jumper132–116
- Q431.1Malik Beasley offensive rebound132–116
- Q434.0MarJon Beauchamp misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot132–116
- Q447.1Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 2 of 2132–116
- Q447.1AJ Green enters the game for Andre Jackson Jr.131–116
- Q447.1Malik Beasley enters the game for Chris Livingston131–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:33AJ Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)UTAH 29 – 21 MIL · MIL 34% → 41% +7MIL 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q11:16Kelly Olynyk makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 32 – 21 MIL · UTAH 59% → 66% +7UTAH 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q411:44Khris Middleton makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotUTAH 100 – 92 MIL · MIL 15% → 24% +9MIL 15% → 24%+9 pts
- Q411:28Keyonte George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)UTAH 103 – 92 MIL · UTAH 76% → 85% +9UTAH 76% → 85%+9 pts
- Q45:26Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)UTAH 115 – 108 MIL · MIL 7% → 16% +9MIL 7% → 16%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3.5
- MIL 63%
- Fair odds
- MIL -154
- UTAH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 120.6 – 123.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | +45 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +91 Elo | MIL 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 124.32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 119.524th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.1 | Margin | +4.87th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 118.74th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 114.219th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.8 | Pace | 104.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 24th of 306–15 | Road vs home | 16–33rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.