Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints26
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints31
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Obi ToppinRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–142
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–142
- Q48.0T.J. McConnell defensive rebound130–142
- Q411.1MarJon Beauchamp misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot130–142
- Q415.1Jarace Walker makes free throw 2 of 2130–142
- Q415.1Jarace Walker makes free throw 1 of 2130–141
- Q415.1Thanasis Antetokounmpo personal foul130–140
- Q419.1Andre Jackson Jr. makes 7-foot two point shot130–140
- Q426.2Robin Lopez defensive rebound128–140
- Q426.2Jarace Walker misses free throw 2 of 2128–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:10Andre Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 45 – 43 IND · MIL 53% → 60% +8MIL 53% → 60%+8 pts
- Q21:20Khris Middleton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)MIL 63 – 60 IND · MIL 55% → 63% +8MIL 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q232.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot step back jumpshotMIL 66 – 63 IND · IND 29% → 37% +8IND 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q23.1Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)MIL 68 – 66 IND · IND 31% → 40% +8IND 31% → 40%+8 pts
- Q39:35Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)MIL 72 – 75 IND · IND 46% → 55% +9IND 46% → 55%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2.5
- MIL 59%
- Fair odds
- MIL -130
- IND +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 128.7 – 126.7 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +103 | +64 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MIL crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +65 Elo | MIL 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.6 | Points scored | 125.91st of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 124.429th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.6 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 119.32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 117.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.0 | Pace | 105.61st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 6th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 9–716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+103 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–3 IND in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.