Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints34
- Khris MiddletonAssists11
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds16
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints34
- Donovan MitchellAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–111
- Q43.1Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound119–111
- Q46.0Max Strus misses 25-foot three point jumper119–111
- Q412.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2119–111
- Q412.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2118–111
- Q412.1Max Strus personal take foul117–111
- Q412.1Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound117–111
- Q413.0Donovan Mitchell misses 24-foot three point jumper117–111
- Q417.2Sam Merrill enters the game for Craig Porter117–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:26Malik Beasley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 61 – 61 CLE · MIL 49% → 58% +9MIL 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q38:54Damian Lillard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 67 – 65 CLE · MIL 54% → 64% +9MIL 54% → 64%+9 pts
- Q44:39Jarrett Allen makes 3-foot two point shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)MIL 105 – 101 CLE · CLE 14% → 22% +9CLE 14% → 22%+9 pts
- Q44:06Damian Lillard makes 2-foot two point shotMIL 107 – 101 CLE · MIL 79% → 88% +9MIL 79% → 88%+9 pts
- Q43:13Craig Porter makes driving layupMIL 107 – 103 CLE · CLE 5% → 19% +14CLE 5% → 19%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3.5
- MIL 64%
- Fair odds
- MIL -158
- CLE +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 121.1 – 117.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +116 | +27 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +100 Elo | MIL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30125.2 | Points scored | 112.123rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.2 | Points allowed | 111.88th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.0 | Margin | +0.318th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 111.519th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 111.310th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.8 | Pace | 99.626th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 9–716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+116 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.