Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints26
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds13
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints30
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists11
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–113
- Q413.0T.J. McConnell defensive rebound122–113
- Q416.0Brook Lopez misses 27-foot three point jumper122–113
- Q424.0Myles Turner makes free throw 2 of 2122–113
- Q424.0Myles Turner makes free throw 1 of 2121–113
- Q424.0Khris Middleton personal take foul120–113
- Q424.0Myles Turner defensive rebound120–113
- Q424.1Damian Lillard misses 25-foot three point jumper120–113
- Q428.2Bucks Full timeout120–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:58Bennedict Mathurin makes layup (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 101 – 99 MIL · IND 43% → 55% +12IND 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q45:47Brook Lopez makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)IND 101 – 101 MIL · MIL 45% → 57% +12MIL 45% → 57%+12 pts
- Q45:28T.J. McConnell makes 13-foot two point shotIND 103 – 101 MIL · IND 43% → 55% +12IND 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q44:52Tyrese Haliburton makes 16-foot pullup jump shotIND 105 – 101 MIL · IND 57% → 69% +12IND 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q43:39Khris Middleton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)IND 109 – 104 MIL · MIL 9% → 21% +13MIL 9% → 21%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6.5
- MIL 74%
- Fair odds
- MIL -227
- IND +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 125.5 – 131.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +76 | +124 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +180 Elo | MIL 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 69.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30126.0 | Points scored | 125.02nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.8 | Points allowed | 118.924th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +6.04th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.5 | Offense rating | 119.43rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.3 | Defense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Pace | 103.94th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 11th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 16–23rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+124 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 2–1 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.