Milwaukee Bucks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints48
- Damian LillardAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds17
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints21
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–112
- Q40.0(00:00) [Bucks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)108–112
- Q40.1Pat Connaughton makes 26-foot three point shot108–112
- Q45.0Pat Connaughton enters the game for MarJon Beauchamp105–112
- Q45.0Jabari Smith Jr. enters the game for Aaron Holiday105–112
- Q45.0Bucks Full timeout105–112
- Q45.0Fred VanVleet makes free throw 2 of 2105–112
- Q45.0Alperen Sengun enters the game for Jabari Smith Jr.105–111
- Q45.0Fred VanVleet makes free throw 1 of 2105–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:25Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 60 – 70 HOU · MIL 22% → 30% +8MIL 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q38:05Jeff Green makes three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)MIL 60 – 73 HOU · HOU 71% → 78% +8HOU 71% → 78%+8 pts
- Q35:49Pat Connaughton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 66 – 76 HOU · MIL 19% → 27% +8MIL 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q34:36Aaron Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)MIL 68 – 81 HOU · HOU 74% → 82% +8HOU 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q46:49Jalen Green makes 26-foot step back jumpshotMIL 85 – 96 HOU · HOU 83% → 91% +8HOU 83% → 91%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4.5
- MIL 68%
- Fair odds
- MIL -191
- HOU +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 121.2 – 116.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +89 | +17 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +127 Elo | MIL 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 65.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.8 | Points scored | 112.523rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 109.92nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +2.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 111.820th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 109.23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.1 | Pace | 100.023rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 14–69th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.