Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints15
- Cameron JohnsonAssists5
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds13
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints30
- Fred VanVleetAssists10
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–112
- Q41.2Nets offensive team rebound101–112
- Q41.2Royce O'Neale misses driving floating jump shot101–112
- Q411.1Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound100–112
- Q413.0Amen Thompson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot101–112
- Q438.2Day'Ron Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2100–112
- Q438.2Nets offensive team rebound99–112
- Q438.2Day'Ron Sharpe misses free throw 1 of 299–112
- Q438.2Cam Whitmore shooting foul99–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q238.1Mikal Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)BKN 50 – 49 HOU · BKN 31% → 39% +8BKN 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q311:08Mikal Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 53 – 51 HOU · BKN 34% → 42% +9BKN 34% → 42%+9 pts
- Q39:31Spencer Dinwiddie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)BKN 60 – 55 HOU · BKN 43% → 52% +9BKN 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q37:33Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point jumperBKN 64 – 62 HOU · HOU 46% → 56% +10HOU 46% → 56%+10 pts
- Q37:13Fred VanVleet makes 27-foot three point shot (Jalen Green assists)BKN 64 – 65 HOU · HOU 56% → 65% +9HOU 56% → 65%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6.5
- HOU 73%
- Fair odds
- HOU -223
- BKN +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 109.9 – 116.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | +33 | BKN: Usual rotation · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +176 Elo | HOU 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 69.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 113.121st of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 109.83rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.5 | Margin | +3.29th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 112.318th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 109.14th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.2 | Pace | 99.924th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–11 | Road vs home | 13–510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.