Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints17
- Royce O'NealeAssists5
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds9
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints16
- CJ McCollumAssists5
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game85–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter85–112
- Q423.1Harry Giles III makes two point shot85–112
- Q438.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl out of bounds bad pass turnover83–112
- Q439.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl offensive rebound83–112
- Q442.2Kira Lewis Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper83–112
- Q451.1Harry Giles III makes 3-foot two point shot (Trendon Watford assists)83–112
- Q41:07Jordan Hawkins makes free throw 2 of 281–112
- Q41:07Pelicans offensive team rebound81–111
- Q41:07Jordan Hawkins misses free throw 1 of 281–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:23Brandon Ingram makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)BKN 0 – 3 NO · NO 69% → 74% +5NO 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q110:46Jonas Valanciunas makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)BKN 0 – 6 NO · NO 74% → 79% +5NO 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q110:16CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)BKN 0 – 9 NO · NO 79% → 83% +4NO 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q19:50Dorian Finney-Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)BKN 3 – 9 NO · BKN 17% → 21% +4BKN 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q19:30Brandon Ingram makes 24-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)BKN 3 – 12 NO · NO 79% → 83% +4NO 79% → 83%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -6.5
- NO 74%
- Fair odds
- NO -221
- BKN +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 112.6 – 118.7 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +78 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +182 Elo | NO 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 68.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 116.012th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 113.012th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.8 | Margin | +3.09th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 114.214th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 111.28th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.215th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–10 | Road vs home | 11–714th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.