Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints34
- Austin ReavesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds10
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints26
- CJ McCollumAssists9
- Larry Nance Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–129
- Q47.0shot clock turnover109–129
- Q431.1Jalen Hood-Schifino makes 13-foot pullup jump shot109–129
- Q439.1Brandon Ingram makes driving layup (CJ McCollum assists)107–129
- Q450.1CJ McCollum defensive rebound107–127
- Q454.0Austin Reaves misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot107–127
- Q41:12Jaxson Hayes defensive rebound107–127
- Q41:16Brandon Ingram misses free throw 1 of 1107–127
- Q41:16Jaxson Hayes enters the game for LeBron James107–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:33CJ McCollum makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Zion Williamson assists)LAL 0 – 3 NO · NO 62% → 68% +6NO 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q15:47Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 20 – 21 NO · LAL 31% → 37% +6LAL 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q15:07CJ McCollum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)LAL 22 – 24 NO · NO 59% → 65% +6NO 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q14:45CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point shot (Naji Marshall assists)LAL 22 – 27 NO · NO 65% → 71% +6NO 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q14:11CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)LAL 23 – 30 NO · NO 69% → 75% +6NO 69% → 75%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -3
- NO 62%
- Fair odds
- NO -162
- LAL +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 113.5 – 117.2 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +41 | +74 | LAL: Missing D'Angelo Russell −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +83 Elo | NO 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 61.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 115.613th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 113.112th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +2.59th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 113.716th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 21st of 306–12 | Road vs home | 10–715th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+41 Elo- D'Angelo Russell left groin soreness−9 Elo
Pelicans
+74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.