Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints24
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints20
- Fred VanVleetAssists8
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–95
- Q413.1Wendell Moore Jr. defensive rebound122–95
- Q413.1Boban Marjanovic misses 18-foot two point shot122–95
- Q421.1Luka Garza lost ball turnover (Amen Thompson steals)122–95
- Q423.0Luka Garza offensive rebound122–95
- Q423.0Troy Brown Jr. misses 26-foot step back jumpshot122–95
- Q430.0Cam Whitmore makes 1-foot dunk122–95
- Q432.1Shake Milton bad pass (Cam Whitmore steals)122–93
- Q441.1Boban Marjanovic makes two point shot122–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:21Fred VanVleet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jae'Sean Tate assists)MIN 10 – 14 HOU · HOU 51% → 57% +7HOU 51% → 57%+7 pts
- Q16:21Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)MIN 15 – 16 HOU · MIN 43% → 49% +7MIN 43% → 49%+7 pts
- Q15:38Jaden McDaniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 18 – 18 HOU · MIN 45% → 51% +7MIN 45% → 51%+7 pts
- Q27:47Mike Conley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 42 – 34 HOU · MIN 64% → 71% +7MIN 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q39:24Jabari Smith Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)MIN 62 – 55 HOU · HOU 21% → 28% +7HOU 21% → 28%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- MIN 51%
- Fair odds
- MIN -107
- HOU +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 109.7 – 109.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +36 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +8 Elo | MIN 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 113.022nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.8 | Points allowed | 109.62nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +3.59th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 112.419th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 108.92nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.1 | Pace | 99.925th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 14–57th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.