New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints27
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Larry Nance Jr.Rebounds9
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints35
- Mike ConleyAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–106
- Q411.0Shake Milton makes 1-foot layup (Troy Brown Jr. assists)117–106
- Q416.1Jordan Hawkins makes 14-foot two point shot117–104
- Q425.2Josh Minott makes free throw 2 of 2115–104
- Q425.2Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Herbert Jones115–103
- Q425.2Josh Minott makes free throw 1 of 2115–103
- Q425.2Herbert Jones shooting foul115–102
- Q428.2Naz Reid defensive rebound115–102
- Q432.1Josh Minott blocks Herbert Jones 's 26-foot step back jumpshot115–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:06Jose Alvarado makes 22-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 32 – 26 MIN · NO 44% → 54% +10NO 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q29:20Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan McLaughlin assists)NO 32 – 30 MIN · MIN 46% → 56% +10MIN 46% → 56%+10 pts
- Q25:17Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)NO 40 – 35 MIN · MIN 39% → 47% +8MIN 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q24:52Herbert Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)NO 43 – 35 MIN · NO 53% → 61% +8NO 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q310:17CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 65 – 53 MIN · NO 68% → 76% +8NO 68% → 76%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3
- MIN 61%
- Fair odds
- MIN -170
- NO +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 109.0 – 113.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +80 | +57 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +80 Elo | MIN 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 113.022nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 107.51st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.7 | Margin | +5.54th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 106.81st of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.320th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 11th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 14–12nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.