Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints44
- Damian LillardAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints34
- Tre JonesAssists6
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–121
- Q40.1Victor Wembanyama inbound turnover125–121
- Q41.1Pat Connaughton makes free throw 2 of 2125–121
- Q41.1Bucks offensive team rebound124–121
- Q41.1Pat Connaughton misses free throw 1 of 2124–121
- Q41.1Keldon Johnson loose ball foul124–121
- Q41.1Bucks defensive team rebound124–121
- Q41.1Tre Jones misses 23-foot three point jumper124–121
- Q416.1Spurs Full timeout124–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:29Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot two point shotMIL 114 – 115 SA · MIL 20% → 47% +27MIL 20% → 47%+27 pts
- Q43:00Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 24-foot three pointerMIL 118 – 118 SA · MIL 30% → 55% +24MIL 30% → 55%+24 pts
- Q42:26Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 121 – 118 SA · MIL 54% → 79% +25MIL 54% → 79%+25 pts
- Q41:09Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)MIL 121 – 121 SA · SA 14% → 47% +33SA 14% → 47%+33 pts
- Q453.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot driving dunkMIL 123 – 121 SA · MIL 52% → 80% +27MIL 52% → 80%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -7
- MIL 76%
- Fair odds
- MIL -209
- SA +209 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 125.4 – 119.8 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1364 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +91 | +4 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +203 Elo | MIL 76.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.8 | Points scored | 110.926th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 122.827th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.1 | Margin | −11.930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 105.829th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 117.125th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.1 | Pace | 104.23rd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 12th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 2–1429th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+91 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 SA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.