San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints20
- Keldon JohnsonAssists4
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds7
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints26
- Ja MorantAssists10
- Santi AldamaRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–106
- Q45.0Blake Wesley makes 2-foot driving dunk98–106
- Q48.1Ja Morant out of bounds bad pass turnover96–106
- Q415.0Jeremy Sochan makes 23-foot pullup jump shot (Tre Jones assists)96–106
- Q420.0Ja Morant makes free throw 2 of 294–106
- Q420.0Ziaire Williams enters the game for Marcus Smart94–105
- Q420.0David Roddy enters the game for Desmond Bane94–105
- Q420.0Xavier Tillman enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.94–105
- Q420.0John Konchar enters the game for Santi Aldama94–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:57Ja Morant makes 26-foot three pointer (Luke Kennard assists)SA 37 – 42 MEM · MEM 65% → 73% +7MEM 65% → 73%+7 pts
- Q310:34Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 46 – 50 MEM · SA 22% → 30% +7SA 22% → 30%+7 pts
- Q39:22Victor Wembanyama makes 30-foot three point shot (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 51 – 50 MEM · SA 35% → 44% +9SA 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q37:48Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)SA 51 – 57 MEM · MEM 68% → 76% +8MEM 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q34:22Vince Williams Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)SA 55 – 63 MEM · MEM 74% → 82% +8MEM 74% → 82%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4
- MEM 66%
- Fair odds
- MEM -171
- SA +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 111.8 – 115.9 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1370 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | −11 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +113 Elo | MEM 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 63.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 106.830th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.3 | Points allowed | 113.815th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.0 | Margin | −7.126th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 104.630th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 111.511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.3 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–13 | Road vs home | 2–1228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–1 MEM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.