Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints40
- Kristaps PorzingisAssists7
- Payton PritchardRebounds7
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints26
- T.J. McConnellAssists7
- Jalen SmithRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–133
- Q40.0Celtics offensive team rebound131–133
- Q40.1Luke Kornet misses alley oop layup131–133
- Q40.1Luke Kornet enters the game for Jrue Holiday131–133
- Q40.1Al Horford defensive rebound131–133
- Q40.1Bennedict Mathurin misses free throw 3 of 3131–133
- Q40.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 3131–133
- Q40.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 3131–132
- Q40.1(00:00.6) [Celtics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)131–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:25Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 124 – 124 IND · BOS 29% → 52% +22BOS 29% → 52%+22 pts
- Q43:00Bennedict Mathurin makes 28-foot three pointerBOS 124 – 127 IND · IND 48% → 72% +24IND 48% → 72%+24 pts
- Q41:05Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 131 – 129 IND · BOS 37% → 76% +39BOS 37% → 76%+39 pts
- Q443.1T.J. McConnell makes 3-foot two point shotBOS 131 – 131 IND · IND 19% → 49% +30IND 19% → 49%+30 pts
- Q40.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 3BOS 131 – 132 IND · IND 50% → 100% +50IND 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4
- BOS 66%
- Fair odds
- BOS -130
- IND +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 123.9 – 122.0 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1676 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +59 | +57 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +115 Elo | BOS 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.9 | Points scored | 126.31st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 124.129th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.8 | Margin | +2.211th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.5 | Offense rating | 119.71st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 117.626th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.0 | Pace | 105.61st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 11–818th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.