Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints38
- Al HorfordAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds13
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints20
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists7
- Myles TurnerRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–101
- Q47.1shot clock turnover118–101
- Q431.1Oscar Tshiebwe makes pullup jump shot (Jarace Walker assists)118–101
- Q440.1Oshae Brissett makes driving layup (Luke Kornet assists)118–99
- Q444.1Luke Kornet offensive rebound116–99
- Q448.0Payton Pritchard misses 15-foot step back jumpshot116–99
- Q41:06Luke Kornet enters the game for Al Horford116–99
- Q41:06Payton Pritchard enters the game for Derrick White116–99
- Q41:06Svi Mykhailiuk enters the game for Jaylen Brown116–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:47Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 63 – 58 IND · BOS 60% → 68% +9BOS 60% → 68%+9 pts
- Q34:41Obi Toppin makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)BOS 73 – 69 IND · IND 24% → 33% +9IND 24% → 33%+9 pts
- Q33:15Tyrese Haliburton makes 28-foot three pointer (Bennedict Mathurin assists)BOS 75 – 72 IND · IND 26% → 36% +10IND 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q323.0Buddy Hield makes 23-foot three point shot (T.J. McConnell assists)BOS 82 – 81 IND · IND 32% → 43% +12IND 32% → 43%+12 pts
- Q410:50Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 89 – 83 IND · BOS 65% → 76% +11BOS 65% → 76%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 64%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- IND +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 124.9 – 123.3 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1666 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | IND and BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +100 | +96 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +98 Elo | BOS 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30121.0 | Points scored | 127.11st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 124.329th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.6 | Margin | +2.710th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 120.31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 117.726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.9 | Pace | 105.71st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 4th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 11–714th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+96 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.