Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints30
- Trae YoungAssists6
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds8
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints27
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists18
- Tyrese HaliburtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–150
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–150
- Q420.1shot clock turnover116–150
- Q445.1Seth Lundy makes 25-foot three point shot (Garrison Mathews assists)116–150
- Q450.2Jarace Walker bad pass (Trent Forrest steals)113–150
- Q455.1Trent Forrest bad pass (Ben Sheppard steals)113–150
- Q41:05Jarace Walker makes driving layup (T.J. McConnell assists)113–150
- Q41:21Trent Forrest makes 11-foot two point shot113–148
- Q41:30James Johnson out of bounds bad pass turnover111–148
- Q41:30Trent Forrest bad pass (James Johnson steals)111–148
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:47Dejounte Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 3 – 0 IND · ATL 37% → 43% +6ATL 37% → 43%+6 pts
- Q111:13Jalen Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 6 – 0 IND · ATL 43% → 49% +6ATL 43% → 49%+6 pts
- Q19:34Saddiq Bey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 9 – 6 IND · ATL 37% → 44% +6ATL 37% → 44%+6 pts
- Q16:17Bruce Brown makes 28-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)ATL 13 – 16 IND · IND 62% → 68% +6IND 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q13:16Obi Toppin makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)ATL 17 – 27 IND · IND 76% → 81% +5IND 76% → 81%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4
- IND 66%
- Fair odds
- IND -170
- ATL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 127.0 – 131.0 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +61 | +75 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +119 Elo | IND 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.8 | Points scored | 126.41st of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.2 | Points allowed | 124.629th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.811th of 30 |
| 6th of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 119.72nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.5 | Defense rating | 117.926th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.8 | Pace | 105.71st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 10–716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.