Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds13
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints28
- Trae YoungAssists11
- Clint CapelaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–141
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–141
- Q40.1Thunder offensive team rebound138–141
- Q40.1Isaiah Joe misses 23-foot three point jumper138–141
- Q43.0Lindy Waters III enters the game for Aaron Wiggins138–141
- Q43.0Josh Giddey enters the game for Luguentz Dort138–141
- Q43.0Trent Forrest enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic138–141
- Q43.0Thunder Full timeout138–141
- Q43.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound138–141
- Q45.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 26-foot three point jumper138–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:36Josh Giddey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 88 – 95 ATL · OKC 23% → 32% +9OKC 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q33:48Dejounte Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trent Forrest assists)OKC 92 – 102 ATL · ATL 70% → 79% +9ATL 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q32:47Jaylin Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 97 – 106 ATL · OKC 16% → 23% +8OKC 16% → 23%+8 pts
- Q48:35Lindy Waters III makes 26-foot three point shot (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 115 – 123 ATL · OKC 10% → 18% +8OKC 10% → 18%+8 pts
- Q47:31Jalen Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)OKC 117 – 128 ATL · ATL 83% → 91% +8ATL 83% → 91%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 68%
- Fair odds
- OKC -139
- ATL +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 124.5 – 122.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1605 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +115 | +58 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +129 Elo | OKC 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.5 | Points scored | 122.23rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 122.727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.4 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 117.66th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 118.127th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.0 | Pace | 103.75th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–4 | Road vs home | 4–925th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+115 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–0 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.