Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints40
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Clint CapelaRebounds17
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints38
- Tyus JonesAssists8
- Deni AvdijaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–126
- Q40.0Wizards offensive team rebound130–126
- Q40.0Deni Avdija misses 44-foot three point shot130–126
- Q43.0Daniel Gafford defensive rebound130–126
- Q46.0Dejounte Murray misses free throw 2 of 2130–126
- Q46.0Dejounte Murray makes free throw 1 of 2130–126
- Q46.0Deni Avdija personal foul129–126
- Q48.1Kyle Kuzma makes 3-foot driving dunk129–126
- Q413.0Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound129–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:25Kyle Kuzma makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)ATL 54 – 52 WSH · WSH 31% → 39% +8WSH 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q37:20Saddiq Bey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 81 – 72 WSH · ATL 73% → 81% +7ATL 73% → 81%+7 pts
- Q35:23Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three point jumperATL 83 – 79 WSH · WSH 23% → 32% +9WSH 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q34:39Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)ATL 86 – 81 WSH · ATL 61% → 71% +10ATL 61% → 71%+10 pts
- Q33:23Mike Muscala makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)ATL 89 – 84 WSH · WSH 20% → 28% +9WSH 20% → 28%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- ATL 61%
- Fair odds
- ATL -137
- WSH +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 126.0 – 123.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +63 | −22 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +75 Elo | ATL 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.9 | Points scored | 116.411th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.6 | Points allowed | 126.030th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | −9.627th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 110.525th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 119.729th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.5 | Pace | 105.22nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 18th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 3–1027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.