Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Pascal SiakamPoints27
- Jontay PorterAssists6
- RJ BarrettRebounds7
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints22
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists6
- Kelly OlynykRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–145
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–145
- Q413.1Jalen McDaniels makes free throw 3 of 3113–145
- Q413.1Jalen McDaniels makes free throw 2 of 3112–145
- Q413.1Jalen McDaniels makes free throw 1 of 3111–145
- Q413.1Omer Yurtseven shooting foul110–145
- Q421.1Taylor Hendricks makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brice Sensabaugh assists)110–145
- Q432.1Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound110–142
- Q435.1Gradey Dick misses 25-foot three point jumper110–142
- Q442.1Luka Samanic makes 2-foot layup (Taylor Hendricks assists)110–142
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:38Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (John Collins assists)TOR 5 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 52% → 59% +6UTAH 52% → 59%+6 pts
- Q16:31Pascal Siakam makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jontay Porter assists)TOR 14 – 12 UTAH · TOR 36% → 42% +6TOR 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q11:56Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gary Trent Jr. assists)TOR 20 – 21 UTAH · TOR 30% → 36% +6TOR 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q11:41Ochai Agbaji makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)TOR 20 – 24 UTAH · UTAH 64% → 70% +6UTAH 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q27:47Ochai Agbaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)TOR 33 – 39 UTAH · UTAH 68% → 74% +7UTAH 68% → 74%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -4
- UTAH 66%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -170
- TOR +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 117.1 – 121.1 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +62 | +53 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +116 Elo | UTAH 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 115.316th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 118.523rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −3.224th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 112.120th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 115.222nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.710th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–14 | Road vs home | 12–510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.