Toronto Raptors at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints20
- Pascal SiakamAssists9
- Chris BoucherRebounds9
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints24
- Domantas SabonisAssists11
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–135
- Q41.0Keegan Murray makes free throw 2 of 2130–135
- Q41.0Keegan Murray makes free throw 1 of 2130–134
- Q41.0Pascal Siakam personal take foul130–133
- Q41.1Keegan Murray defensive rebound130–133
- Q42.1Immanuel Quickley misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot130–133
- Q49.0Raptors Full timeout130–133
- Q49.1Chris Boucher offensive rebound130–133
- Q411.1Immanuel Quickley misses 26-foot three point jumper130–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:06Jakob Poeltl makes driving layup (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 123 – 126 SAC · TOR 17% → 28% +11TOR 17% → 28%+11 pts
- Q43:42Keegan Murray makes 1-foot layup (Domantas Sabonis assists)TOR 123 – 128 SAC · SAC 73% → 84% +11SAC 73% → 84%+11 pts
- Q42:38Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 127 – 129 SAC · TOR 12% → 31% +19TOR 12% → 31%+19 pts
- Q42:11Domantas Sabonis makes free throw 1 of 2TOR 127 – 130 SAC · SAC 70% → 78% +8SAC 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q448.2De'Aaron Fox makes 6-foot two point shotTOR 128 – 133 SAC · SAC 89% → 98% +9SAC 89% → 98%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -2
- SAC 58%
- Fair odds
- SAC -140
- TOR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.6 – 119.1 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +80 | +56 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +56 Elo | SAC 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 117.88th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 117.222nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.617th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 114.713th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 114.120th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.5 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–11 | Road vs home | 12–613th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.