Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints26
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–111
- Q40.0
Grizzlies offensive team rebound116–111 - Q40.0Ziaire Williams misses 65-foot three point jumper116–111
- Q40.2Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 2 of 2116–111
- Q40.2Raptors offensive team rebound115–111
- Q40.2Immanuel Quickley misses free throw 1 of 2115–111
- Q40.2Marcus Smart personal foul115–111
- Q43.1Ja Morant makes 25-foot three pointer115–111
- Q46.1Ja Morant defensive rebound115–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:40Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Boucher assists)TOR 35 – 33 MEM · TOR 55% → 62% +7TOR 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q23:52Ziaire Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)TOR 45 – 43 MEM · MEM 30% → 38% +8MEM 30% → 38%+8 pts
- Q23:25Ziaire Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)TOR 47 – 46 MEM · MEM 33% → 40% +8MEM 33% → 40%+8 pts
- Q23:04Immanuel Quickley makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)TOR 50 – 46 MEM · TOR 60% → 67% +8TOR 60% → 67%+8 pts
- Q43:15Ziaire Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)TOR 108 – 103 MEM · MEM 5% → 14% +10MEM 5% → 14%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -3
- TOR 61%
- Fair odds
- TOR -144
- MEM +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 112.9 – 110.1 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +66 | 0 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −4 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +80 Elo | TOR 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 106.730th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 113.412th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.2 | Margin | −6.626th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 104.630th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 111.19th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–11 | Road vs home | 3–1228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
0 Elo- Derrick Rose left hamstring strain−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.