Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Caris LeVertPoints31
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Raptors- Pascal SiakamPoints36
- Dennis SchroderAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–124
- Q40.0Max Strus bad pass (Scottie Barnes steals)121–124
- Q41.1Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2121–124
- Q41.1Sam Merrill enters the game for Isaac Okoro121–123
- Q41.1Jakob Poeltl enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.121–123
- Q41.1Raptors offensive team rebound121–123
- Q41.1Scottie Barnes misses free throw 1 of 2121–123
- Q41.1Max Strus personal foul121–123
- Q42.1Raptors Full timeout121–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:24Sam Merrill makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Max Strus assists)CLE 108 – 108 TOR · CLE 34% → 50% +15CLE 34% → 50%+15 pts
- Q46:48Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot step back jumpshotCLE 111 – 108 TOR · CLE 50% → 66% +16CLE 50% → 66%+16 pts
- Q45:16Caris LeVert makes 28-foot step back jumpshotCLE 114 – 113 TOR · CLE 37% → 56% +19CLE 37% → 56%+19 pts
- Q43:33Pascal Siakam makes 12-foot two point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)CLE 116 – 118 TOR · TOR 50% → 65% +15TOR 50% → 65%+15 pts
- Q41:30Scottie Barnes makes 4-foot two point shotCLE 118 – 120 TOR · TOR 50% → 72% +22TOR 50% → 72%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- TOR 47%
- Fair odds
- TOR -103
- CLE +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 113.2 – 113.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +64 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +23 Elo | CLE 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 113.718th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 115.017th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.322nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 112.517th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 113.920th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.8 | Pace | 100.221st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 8–923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.