Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints26
- Scottie BarnesAssists6
- RJ BarrettRebounds10
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints41
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–132
- Q40.0(00:00) [Raptors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)131–132
- Q40.0Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)131–132
- Q43.0Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2128–132
- Q43.0Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2128–131
- Q43.0Thaddeus Young enters the game for Scottie Barnes128–130
- Q43.0Scottie Barnes personal take foul128–130
- Q44.1Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot jump bank shot128–130
- Q48.1Raptors Full timeout125–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:19Pascal Siakam makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 109 – 108 LAL · TOR 36% → 56% +20TOR 36% → 56%+20 pts
- Q43:22Pascal Siakam makes 23-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 112 – 111 LAL · TOR 34% → 57% +23TOR 34% → 57%+23 pts
- Q43:06Austin Reaves makes 30-foot three pointerTOR 112 – 114 LAL · LAL 43% → 67% +24LAL 43% → 67%+24 pts
- Q41:08Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 121 – 120 LAL · TOR 24% → 63% +38TOR 24% → 63%+38 pts
- Q41:01Anthony Davis makes driving layup (Austin Reaves assists)TOR 121 – 122 LAL · LAL 36% → 64% +28LAL 36% → 64%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1
- LAL 54%
- Fair odds
- LAL -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 115.8 – 116.7 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | +3 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +25 Elo | LAL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 113.719th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 114.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.720th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 110.524th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 102.38th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 12–612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.