Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points31
- Desmond BaneAssists13
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds10
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints32
- Austin ReavesAssists12
- Austin ReavesRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–113
- Q40.0Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound127–113
- Q42.1Anthony Davis misses 23-foot three point jumper127–113
- Q43.1shot clock turnover127–113
- Q427.1LeBron James makes driving layup127–113
- Q436.2Desmond Bane makes 28-foot step back jumpshot127–111
- Q453.2Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound124–111
- Q457.0Austin Reaves misses 25-foot step back jumpshot124–111
- Q41:06shot clock turnover124–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q347.2Ja Morant makes 26-foot three pointerMEM 94 – 92 LAL · MEM 39% → 51% +12MEM 39% → 51%+12 pts
- Q410:30Ziaire Williams makes 24-foot three point shot (Marcus Smart assists)MEM 98 – 96 LAL · MEM 40% → 53% +13MEM 40% → 53%+13 pts
- Q49:01Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three pointer (Luke Kennard assists)MEM 101 – 98 LAL · MEM 44% → 59% +14MEM 44% → 59%+14 pts
- Q47:28Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MEM 106 – 103 LAL · MEM 45% → 61% +16MEM 45% → 61%+16 pts
- Q45:43Ziaire Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)MEM 112 – 105 LAL · MEM 69% → 83% +14MEM 69% → 83%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4.5
- LAL 68%
- Fair odds
- LAL -169
- MEM +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 109.1 – 113.1 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | 0 | MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −3 · LAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +131 Elo | LAL 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.9 | Points scored | 114.019th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 114.416th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.6 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.7 | Offense rating | 110.723rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 111.19th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.4 | Pace | 102.48th of 30 |
| 18th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 11–511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−1 Elo- Derrick Rose left hamstring strain−3 Elo
Lakers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 LAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.