Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints21
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists8
- Kevin LoveRebounds14
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints29
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–96
- Q421.1Lakers defensive team rebound110–96
- Q421.1Cole Swider misses 27-foot three point jumper110–96
- Q439.1Max Christie makes free throw 2 of 2110–96
- Q439.1Orlando Robinson enters the game for Tyler Herro110–95
- Q439.1Nikola Jovic enters the game for Duncan Robinson110–95
- Q439.1Jamal Cain enters the game for Kevin Love110–95
- Q439.1Cole Swider enters the game for Bam Adebayo110–95
- Q439.1R.J. Hampton enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.110–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:30Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 67 – 57 LAL · MIA 70% → 79% +8MIA 70% → 79%+8 pts
- Q410:46Christian Wood makes two point shot (LeBron James assists)MIA 74 – 71 LAL · LAL 31% → 39% +8LAL 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q410:22Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Love assists)MIA 77 – 72 LAL · MIA 57% → 69% +13MIA 57% → 69%+13 pts
- Q48:52Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Love assists)MIA 82 – 74 LAL · MIA 71% → 82% +11MIA 71% → 82%+11 pts
- Q47:53Austin Reaves makes 31-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)MIA 86 – 79 LAL · LAL 11% → 20% +9LAL 11% → 20%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1.5
- LAL 56%
- Fair odds
- LAL -121
- MIA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.9 – 114.4 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +11 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Missing D'Angelo Russell −10, Rui Hachimura −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +43 Elo | LAL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 54.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.0 | Points scored | 114.517th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 114.616th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 111.222nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 111.310th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.2 | Pace | 102.48th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 11–410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+11 Elo- D'Angelo Russell tailbone contusion−10 Elo
- Rui Hachimura left calf strain−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 LAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.