Miami Heat at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints21
- Tyler HerroAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds15
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints24
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–121
- Q415.0Orlando Robinson makes free throw 2 of 2104–121
- Q415.0Heat offensive team rebound103–121
- Q415.0Orlando Robinson misses free throw 1 of 2103–121
- Q415.0Amir Coffey shooting foul103–121
- Q431.1Terance Mann makes 12-foot two point shot103–121
- Q455.0Nikola Jovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Orlando Robinson assists)103–119
- Q41:04shot clock turnover100–119
- Q41:28Cole Swider makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)100–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:08Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three pointer (Thomas Bryant assists)MIA 53 – 50 LAC · MIA 43% → 52% +8MIA 43% → 52%+8 pts
- Q21:32Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 58 – 53 LAC · MIA 49% → 58% +8MIA 49% → 58%+8 pts
- Q21:08Norman Powell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)MIA 58 – 56 LAC · LAC 42% → 51% +9LAC 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q237.1Paul George makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Norman Powell assists)MIA 58 – 59 LAC · LAC 50% → 59% +9LAC 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q39:54James Harden makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 61 – 67 LAC · LAC 65% → 73% +8LAC 65% → 73%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 61%
- Fair odds
- LAC -142
- MIA +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.2 – 114.9 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +56 | +79 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +78 Elo | LAC 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 116.611th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 112.29th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +4.47th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 116.08th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 111.612th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.3 | Pace | 100.222nd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 13–46th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.