LA Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints22
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds19
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints25
- LeBron JamesAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–106
- Q40.0Clippers offensive team rebound103–106
- Q40.1Norman Powell misses 26-foot three point shot103–106
- Q44.0Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2103–106
- Q44.0Lakers offensive team rebound103–105
- Q44.0Austin Reaves misses free throw 1 of 2103–105
- Q44.0Paul George personal take foul103–105
- Q44.2Ivica Zubac makes 2-foot hook shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)103–105
- Q412.1Taurean Prince makes free throw 2 of 2101–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:53Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point shot (Paul George assists)LAC 90 – 94 LAL · LAC 20% → 33% +13LAC 20% → 33%+13 pts
- Q46:16Norman Powell makes 27-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 93 – 94 LAL · LAC 32% → 48% +17LAC 32% → 48%+17 pts
- Q44:24Ivica Zubac makes tip shotLAC 95 – 96 LAL · LAC 33% → 47% +13LAC 33% → 47%+13 pts
- Q42:48Anthony Davis makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Austin Reaves assists)LAC 95 – 98 LAL · LAL 56% → 72% +16LAL 56% → 72%+16 pts
- Q41:17Taurean Prince makes 26-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAC 98 – 101 LAL · LAL 48% → 82% +34LAL 48% → 82%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4.5
- LAC 68%
- Fair odds
- LAC -158
- LAL +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 117.2 – 113.7 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +93 | +6 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +132 Elo | LAC 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 113.919th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 114.816th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.3 | Margin | −0.820th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 110.723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 111.510th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.8 | Pace | 102.48th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 14th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 11–613th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+93 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 0–1 LAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.