LA Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints24
- James HardenAssists13
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds9
Pelicans- Jonas ValanciunasPoints13
- Brandon IngramAssists4
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–95
- Q410.1Jordan Hawkins makes 23-foot three pointer (Naji Marshall assists)111–95
- Q424.1Mason Plumlee makes free throw 1 of 1111–92
- Q424.1Cody Zeller shooting foul110–92
- Q424.1Mason Plumlee makes driving layup (Brandon Boston Jr. assists)110–92
- Q443.0Jordan Hawkins makes free throw 2 of 2108–92
- Q443.0Jordan Hawkins makes free throw 1 of 2108–91
- Q443.0Bones Hyland personal foul108–90
- Q443.0shot clock turnover108–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:00Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point shot (Russell Westbrook assists)LAC 26 – 24 NO · LAC 44% → 51% +7LAC 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q211:10Larry Nance Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)LAC 28 – 29 NO · NO 49% → 56% +7NO 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q29:30Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three pointerLAC 32 – 34 NO · NO 51% → 59% +7NO 51% → 59%+7 pts
- Q24:47James Harden makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)LAC 43 – 36 NO · LAC 57% → 65% +8LAC 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q22:08Paul George makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 50 – 38 NO · LAC 71% → 78% +7LAC 71% → 78%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1.5
- NO 55%
- Fair odds
- NO -120
- LAC +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 114.5 – 115.9 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +93 | +89 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +35 Elo | NO 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 115.911th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 112.09th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.9 | Margin | +3.98th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 114.514th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 110.76th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.9 | Pace | 100.816th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 15th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 12–714th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+93 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 0–1 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.