LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints33
- James HardenAssists11
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Suns- Devin BookerPoints35
- Devin BookerAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–122
- Q418.1Norman Powell makes layup (Terance Mann assists)131–122
- Q418.1Terance Mann offensive rebound129–122
- Q421.1Kawhi Leonard misses 22-foot step back jumpshot129–122
- Q439.1Terance Mann enters the game for Ivica Zubac129–122
- Q439.1Clippers Full timeout129–122
- Q444.0Eric Gordon out of bounds lost ball turnover129–122
- Q449.1Norman Powell bad pass (Bol Bol steals)129–122
- Q458.1Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)129–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:22Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 8 – 4 PHX · LAC 60% → 66% +6LAC 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q17:52Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 11 – 6 PHX · LAC 62% → 68% +6LAC 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q17:16Chimezie Metu makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)LAC 11 – 9 PHX · PHX 32% → 38% +6PHX 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q16:59Terance Mann makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 14 – 9 PHX · LAC 62% → 68% +6LAC 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q46:15Devin Booker makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Bol Bol assists)LAC 116 – 108 PHX · PHX 5% → 11% +6PHX 5% → 11%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3.5
- LAC 63%
- Fair odds
- LAC -140
- PHX +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 116.3 – 113.7 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +85 | +15 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +94 Elo | LAC 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 115.214th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 113.614th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +1.713th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 114.513th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 112.813th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.1 | Pace | 99.527th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 17th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 10–922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.