Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints17
- Scoot HendersonAssists6
- Jabari WalkerRebounds9
Suns- Bradley BealPoints21
- Devin BookerAssists6
- Bol BolRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–109
- Q421.1Ish Wainright makes 22-foot three point jumper (Skylar Mays assists)88–109
- Q426.2Yuta Watanabe makes dunk (Jordan Goodwin assists)85–109
- Q429.1Moses Brown bad pass (Jordan Goodwin steals)85–107
- Q439.2Bol Bol makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot85–107
- Q451.1Jabari Walker out of bounds bad pass turnover85–105
- Q454.0Moses Brown defensive rebound85–105
- Q457.1Yuta Watanabe misses 25-foot three point jumper85–105
- Q41:12Skylar Mays makes 27-foot three pointer85–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:49Grayson Allen makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Devin Booker assists)POR 22 – 17 PHX · PHX 38% → 45% +7PHX 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q12:24Matisse Thybulle makes 24-foot three point shot (Shaedon Sharpe assists)POR 25 – 17 PHX · POR 55% → 62% +7POR 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q12:10Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)POR 25 – 20 PHX · PHX 38% → 45% +7PHX 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q25:43Bol Bol makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chimezie Metu assists)POR 35 – 41 PHX · PHX 63% → 70% +7PHX 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q24:24Chimezie Metu makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Okogie assists)POR 37 – 44 PHX · PHX 66% → 73% +7PHX 66% → 73%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2.5
- PHX 60%
- Fair odds
- PHX -133
- POR +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 112.9 – 115.1 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +3 | +10 | POR: Usual rotation · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +72 Elo | PHX 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 57.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30109.4 | Points scored | 115.414th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 114.415th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.8 | Margin | +1.115th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 114.713th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 113.616th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.3 | Pace | 99.527th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–11 | Road vs home | 9–922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 1–1 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.