Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints37
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists10
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds11
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints25
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–118
- Q412.0Lester Quinones makes 3-foot dunk133–118
- Q414.0Garrett Temple lost ball turnover (Lester Quinones steals)133–116
- Q440.0Moses Moody makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)133–116
- Q452.1Garrett Temple makes two point shot (Chris Boucher assists)133–113
- Q454.2Chris Boucher defensive rebound131–113
- Q457.0Jerome Robinson misses layup131–113
- Q459.1Warriors offensive team rebound131–113
- Q459.1Chris Boucher enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.131–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:48RJ Barrett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 3 – 0 GS · TOR 44% → 51% +6TOR 44% → 51%+6 pts
- Q211:15Dario Saric makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)TOR 36 – 31 GS · GS 36% → 43% +7GS 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q29:03RJ Barrett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 43 – 33 GS · TOR 63% → 70% +7TOR 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q28:22RJ Barrett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 46 – 33 GS · TOR 70% → 76% +6TOR 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q327.0Gary Trent Jr. makes 30-foot three point shot (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 99 – 87 GS · TOR 80% → 88% +7TOR 80% → 88%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2.5
- GS 59%
- Fair odds
- GS -125
- TOR +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 117.9 – 119.6 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +61 | +23 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +65 Elo | GS 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 117.19th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 116.519th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.617th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 114.712th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 114.119th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.015th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–12 | Road vs home | 11–920th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.