Toronto Raptors at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints25
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds7
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints29
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–126
- Q412.1Paul George defensive rebound120–126
- Q414.1Immanuel Quickley misses two point shot120–126
- Q421.1James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2120–126
- Q421.1Gary Trent Jr. enters the game for Thaddeus Young120–125
- Q421.1Amir Coffey enters the game for Ivica Zubac120–125
- Q421.1Terance Mann enters the game for Norman Powell120–125
- Q421.1James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2120–125
- Q421.1RJ Barrett personal take foul120–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:42Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)TOR 82 – 83 LAC · LAC 59% → 69% +10LAC 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q32:40Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 87 – 85 LAC · TOR 31% → 42% +11TOR 31% → 42%+11 pts
- Q31:47RJ Barrett makes 23-foot three point shot (Jontay Porter assists)TOR 90 – 85 LAC · TOR 42% → 54% +12TOR 42% → 54%+12 pts
- Q411:39Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)TOR 92 – 94 LAC · LAC 60% → 71% +12LAC 60% → 71%+12 pts
- Q411:00Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)TOR 92 – 97 LAC · LAC 71% → 81% +10LAC 71% → 81%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -9.5
- LAC 82%
- Fair odds
- LAC -322
- TOR +322 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 112.7 – 121.6 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1591 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +43 | +97 | TOR: Missing Pascal Siakam −25 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +259 Elo | LAC 81.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 75.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 76.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 117.29th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 111.56th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +5.64th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 117.17th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 111.59th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.8 | Pace | 99.726th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–13 | Road vs home | 15–44th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+43 Elo- Pascal Siakam back spasms−25 Elo
Clippers
+97 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.