Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints30
- Devin BookerAssists5
- Kevin DurantRebounds7
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints25
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–138
- Q48.0Saben Lee makes free throw 2 of 2111–138
- Q48.0Saben Lee makes free throw 1 of 2110–138
- Q48.0Brandon Boston Jr. shooting foul109–138
- Q412.2Saben Lee offensive rebound109–138
- Q417.0Yuta Watanabe misses 22-foot three point jumper109–138
- Q431.0Amir Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)109–138
- Q445.1Yuta Watanabe makes free throw 2 of 2109–135
- Q445.1Suns offensive team rebound108–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:02Kevin Durant makes 28-foot three pointerPHX 48 – 44 LAC · PHX 40% → 48% +8PHX 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q26:18Jusuf Nurkic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 51 – 46 LAC · PHX 43% → 51% +8PHX 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q25:26Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)PHX 51 – 51 LAC · LAC 54% → 62% +8LAC 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q24:26Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)PHX 53 – 56 LAC · LAC 62% → 69% +7LAC 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q411:19Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 94 – 101 LAC · PHX 10% → 17% +7PHX 10% → 17%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5.5
- LAC 71%
- Fair odds
- LAC -186
- PHX +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 112.6 – 117.3 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | LAC and PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +66 | +90 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +152 Elo | LAC 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 116.610th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 111.58th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +5.06th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 116.58th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 111.411th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.6 | Pace | 99.826th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 8th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 14–46th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 0–1 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.