Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points28
- Marcus SmartAssists8
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds10
Suns- Devin BookerPoints24
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–115
- Q43.0Marcus Smart defensive rebound121–115
- Q46.2Grayson Allen misses 29-foot three point jumper121–115
- Q48.1Suns Full timeout121–115
- Q48.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2121–115
- Q48.1Jusuf Nurkic enters the game for Keita Bates-Diop120–115
- Q48.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2120–115
- Q48.1Keita Bates-Diop personal take foul119–115
- Q412.1Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2119–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:42Marcus Smart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 105 – 102 PHX · MEM 41% → 57% +17MEM 41% → 57%+17 pts
- Q44:07Bradley Beal makes driving layupMEM 110 – 110 PHX · PHX 43% → 57% +14PHX 43% → 57%+14 pts
- Q42:49Kevin Durant makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Bradley Beal assists)MEM 112 – 114 PHX · PHX 56% → 72% +16PHX 56% → 72%+16 pts
- Q41:47Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 115 – 114 PHX · MEM 25% → 56% +30MEM 25% → 56%+30 pts
- Q41:09Jaren Jackson Jr. makes driving layup (Ziaire Williams assists)MEM 117 – 114 PHX · MEM 59% → 82% +22MEM 59% → 82%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -7.5
- PHX 77%
- Fair odds
- PHX -282
- MEM +282 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 107.6 – 115.5 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | +85 | MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +208 Elo | PHX 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 73.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.4 | Points scored | 115.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 113.614th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.0 | Margin | +1.814th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 115.011th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 113.216th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.327th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 11–1022nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−26 Elo- Derrick Rose strained left hamstring−4 Elo
Suns
+85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–2 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.