Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints28
- Josh RichardsonAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints31
- Devin BookerAssists10
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–113
- Q416.1Jamal Cain makes 17-foot step back jumpshot97–113
- Q423.2Heat defensive team rebound95–113
- Q426.0Jordan Goodwin misses 27-foot three point jumper95–113
- Q433.0Cole Swider lost ball turnover (Saben Lee steals)95–113
- Q441.0Thomas Bryant defensive rebound95–113
- Q442.1Saben Lee misses free throw 2 of 295–113
- Q442.1Suns offensive team rebound95–113
- Q442.1Saben Lee misses free throw 1 of 295–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:33Grayson Allen makes 28-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)MIA 39 – 38 PHX · PHX 40% → 47% +7PHX 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q28:01Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three pointer (Bradley Beal assists)MIA 41 – 41 PHX · PHX 42% → 50% +8PHX 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q26:53Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)MIA 43 – 46 PHX · PHX 50% → 58% +8PHX 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q25:02Josh Richardson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 46 – 48 PHX · MIA 37% → 45% +8MIA 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q310:20Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)MIA 63 – 69 PHX · MIA 25% → 32% +8MIA 25% → 32%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -0.5
- MIA 52%
- Fair odds
- MIA -100
- PHX +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 113.2 – 113.2 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | +18 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +17 Elo | MIA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.9 | Points scored | 115.413th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 114.114th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +1.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 114.911th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 113.516th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.3 | Pace | 99.427th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 10–1022nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.