Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Obi ToppinPoints18
- T.J. McConnellAssists14
- Obi ToppinRebounds7
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints29
- Trae YoungAssists6
- Bogdan BogdanovicRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–108
- Q42.0shot clock turnover126–108
- Q426.1AJ Griffin makes two point shot (Trent Forrest assists)126–108
- Q429.1Bruno Fernando defensive rebound126–106
- Q434.1AJ Griffin blocks Jordan Nwora 's 6-foot jumper126–106
- Q443.2Seth Lundy makes free throw 2 of 2126–106
- Q443.2Seth Lundy makes free throw 1 of 2126–105
- Q443.2Kendall Brown shooting foul126–104
- Q458.1Oscar Tshiebwe makes layup (Jordan Nwora assists)126–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:16Bruce Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 18 – 14 ATL · IND 51% → 58% +7IND 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q14:03Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)IND 24 – 22 ATL · ATL 40% → 46% +7ATL 40% → 46%+7 pts
- Q311:00Bruce Brown makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 71 – 62 ATL · IND 67% → 75% +8IND 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q39:06Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot step back jumpshotIND 76 – 65 ATL · IND 73% → 80% +7IND 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q38:53Dejounte Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)IND 76 – 68 ATL · ATL 20% → 27% +7ATL 20% → 27%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- ATL 45%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- IND +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 128.5 – 128.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +37 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +34 Elo | IND 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30126.1 | Points scored | 122.74th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.8 | Points allowed | 124.029th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −1.321st of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.7 | Offense rating | 117.56th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 118.727th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Pace | 103.75th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 6–924th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 2–0 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.