Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints35
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Tobias HarrisRebounds10
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints28
- Trae YoungAssists11
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game132–139
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime132–139
- OT0.076ers offensive team rebound132–139
- OT0.1Patrick Beverley misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot132–139
- OT4.1Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2132–139
- OT4.1Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2132–138
- OT4.1Marcus Morris Sr. personal take foul132–137
- OT4.1Trae Young defensive rebound132–137
- OT6.2Onyeka Okongwu blocks Kelly Oubre Jr. 's 2-foot two point shot132–137
- OT13.1Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2132–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:30Tyrese Maxey makes 1-foot driving dunkPHI 122 – 121 ATL · PHI 38% → 62% +23PHI 38% → 62%+23 pts
- Q454.1Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot step back jumpshotPHI 125 – 121 ATL · PHI 65% → 94% +29PHI 65% → 94%+29 pts
- Q412.0Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2PHI 125 – 125 ATL · ATL 21% → 50% +29ATL 21% → 50%+29 pts
- OT3:15Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mo Bamba assists)PHI 130 – 129 ATL · PHI 34% → 58% +23PHI 34% → 58%+23 pts
- OT40.1Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)PHI 132 – 135 ATL · ATL 50% → 91% +41ATL 50% → 91%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1
- ATL 45%
- Fair odds
- ATL -101
- PHI +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 121.3 – 121.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +33 | PHI: Usual rotation · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +31 Elo | PHI 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 122.23rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 123.728th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.2 | Margin | −1.521st of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 117.46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 118.927th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.4 | Pace | 103.65th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 5–924th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–0 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.