Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints31
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Clint CapelaRebounds12
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints35
- Cole AnthonyAssists5
- Goga BitadzeRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game110–117
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime110–117
- OT11.0Goga Bitadze defensive rebound110–117
- OT14.1Trae Young misses 24-foot step back jumpshot110–117
- OT17.1Trevelin Queen enters the game for Cole Anthony110–117
- OT17.1Hawks Full timeout110–117
- OT17.1Cole Anthony makes free throw 2 of 2110–117
- OT17.1Cole Anthony makes free throw 1 of 2110–116
- OT17.1Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Jalen Johnson110–115
- OT17.1Jalen Johnson personal foul110–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:56Trae Young makes 27-foot step back jumpshotATL 93 – 94 ORL · ATL 26% → 42% +16ATL 26% → 42%+16 pts
- Q45:27Caleb Houstan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ATL 93 – 97 ORL · ORL 58% → 75% +17ORL 58% → 75%+17 pts
- Q41:07Caleb Houstan makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)ATL 101 – 105 ORL · ORL 64% → 92% +28ORL 64% → 92%+28 pts
- Q418.1Saddiq Bey makes 2-foot dunk (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 105 – 105 ORL · ATL 9% → 50% +40ATL 9% → 50%+40 pts
- OT3:57Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)ATL 105 – 108 ORL · ORL 52% → 72% +20ORL 52% → 72%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2.5
- ORL 59%
- Fair odds
- ORL -126
- ATL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 119.5 – 121.2 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | 0 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Missing Joe Ingles −1 (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | ORL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +65 Elo | ORL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.6 | Points scored | 113.820th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 112.011th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.813th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 111.322nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.2 | Defense rating | 109.55th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.9 | Pace | 101.711th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 17th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 12–34th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
0 Elo- Joe Ingles sprained left ankle−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.