Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints28
- Jordan PooleAssists7
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds11
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints18
- T.J. McConnellAssists8
- Myles TurnerRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–112
- Q47.1Deni Avdija makes driving layup (Jordan Poole assists)104–112
- Q414.0shot clock turnover102–112
- Q436.1Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound102–112
- Q438.1Kyle Kuzma misses 9-foot two point shot102–112
- Q440.0Kyle Kuzma offensive rebound102–112
- Q443.1Myles Turner blocks Deni Avdija 's 22-foot three point shot102–112
- Q446.0Daniel Gafford defensive rebound102–112
- Q449.1Bennedict Mathurin misses 26-foot step back jumpshot102–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:52Deni Avdija makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 15 – 9 IND · WSH 35% → 42% +6WSH 35% → 42%+6 pts
- Q26:26Corey Kispert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 36 – 34 IND · WSH 30% → 37% +7WSH 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q23:45Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point shot (Bruce Brown assists)WSH 42 – 41 IND · IND 57% → 65% +8IND 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q21:23Tyus Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)WSH 51 – 50 IND · WSH 29% → 36% +8WSH 29% → 36%+8 pts
- Q310:31Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)WSH 55 – 61 IND · IND 73% → 80% +7IND 73% → 80%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -8.5
- IND 79%
- Fair odds
- IND -257
- WSH +257 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 122.9 – 130.1 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1387 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | +3 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Jalen Smith −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +232 Elo | IND 79.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 71.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 72.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 126.51st of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.3 | Points allowed | 124.329th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.8 | Margin | +2.211th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 119.91st of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.4 | Defense rating | 117.826th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.9 | Pace | 105.51st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–17 | Road vs home | 12–815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+3 Elo- Jalen Smith lower back soreness−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.