Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Tyus JonesPoints16
- Tyus JonesAssists5
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds7
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints26
- Caris LeVertAssists11
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–114
- Q413.1Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 190–114
- Q413.1Craig Porter shooting foul89–114
- Q413.1Bilal Coulibaly makes driving layup (Jared Butler assists)89–114
- Q418.1shot clock turnover87–114
- Q440.2Damian Jones defensive rebound87–114
- Q443.2Anthony Gill misses 25-foot three point jumper87–114
- Q455.0Damian Jones makes alley oop dunk shot (Craig Porter assists)87–114
- Q41:13Eugene Omoruyi makes tip shot87–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:41Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerWSH 0 – 3 CLE · CLE 76% → 80% +5CLE 76% → 80%+5 pts
- Q111:22Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 3 – 3 CLE · WSH 20% → 25% +5WSH 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q19:28Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)WSH 5 – 11 CLE · CLE 80% → 84% +4CLE 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q11:40Bilal Coulibaly makes 26-foot three point shot (Deni Avdija assists)WSH 23 – 29 CLE · WSH 13% → 17% +4WSH 13% → 17%+4 pts
- Q310:55Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointer (Jarrett Allen assists)WSH 44 – 55 CLE · CLE 86% → 90% +4CLE 86% → 90%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9
- CLE 81%
- Fair odds
- CLE -310
- WSH +310 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 113.8 – 122.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | +45 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +256 Elo | CLE 81.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 75.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 113.121st of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.6 | Points allowed | 112.19th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−10.4 | Margin | +1.116th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 112.319th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.2 | Defense rating | 111.310th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.2 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–16 | Road vs home | 10–818th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.