Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints16
- Deni AvdijaAssists4
- Deni AvdijaRebounds6
Cavaliers- Max StrusPoints24
- Jarrett AllenAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–140
- Q413.0Jared Butler makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot101–140
- Q419.1shot clock turnover99–140
- Q443.1Johnny Davis makes 1-foot driving dunk (Bilal Coulibaly assists)99–140
- Q450.0shot clock turnover97–140
- Q41:12Sam Merrill defensive rebound97–140
- Q41:14Johnny Davis misses driving floating jump shot97–140
- Q41:27Wizards defensive team rebound97–140
- Q41:28Tristan Thompson misses free throw 2 of 297–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:49Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)WSH 19 – 16 CLE · WSH 30% → 35% +6WSH 30% → 35%+6 pts
- Q16:02Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)WSH 21 – 19 CLE · CLE 60% → 66% +6CLE 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q15:20Isaac Okoro makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)WSH 21 – 22 CLE · CLE 66% → 72% +6CLE 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q22:12Max Strus makes 30-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)WSH 51 – 56 CLE · CLE 71% → 78% +7CLE 71% → 78%+7 pts
- Q21:31Max Strus makes 22-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)WSH 53 – 59 CLE · CLE 74% → 80% +7CLE 74% → 80%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7.5
- CLE 77%
- Fair odds
- CLE -251
- WSH +251 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 114.3 – 121.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | +22 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +205 Elo | CLE 76.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 112.324th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.2 | Points allowed | 112.411th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 111.520th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.6 | Defense rating | 111.612th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.4 | Pace | 100.023rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–15 | Road vs home | 9–820th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.