Oklahoma City Thunder at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Jalen WilliamsAssists10
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds7
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints24
- Tyus JonesAssists9
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–128
- Q48.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound136–128
- Q410.0Tyus Jones misses driving layup136–128
- Q418.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2136–128
- Q418.1Luguentz Dort enters the game for Josh Giddey135–128
- Q418.1Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Joe135–128
- Q418.1Jordan Poole enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly135–128
- Q418.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2135–128
- Q418.1Landry Shamet personal take foul134–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q218.1Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 67 – 61 WSH · OKC 78% → 84% +6OKC 78% → 84%+6 pts
- Q32:07Jordan Poole makes 25-foot step back jumpshotOKC 99 – 93 WSH · WSH 10% → 16% +6WSH 10% → 16%+6 pts
- Q321.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 4-foot two point shot (Kenrich Williams assists)OKC 102 – 97 WSH · OKC 76% → 82% +6OKC 76% → 82%+6 pts
- Q45:50Isaiah Joe makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 119 – 110 WSH · OKC 88% → 95% +7OKC 88% → 95%+7 pts
- Q44:32Corey Kispert makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)OKC 124 – 118 WSH · WSH 4% → 11% +7WSH 4% → 11%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11
- OKC 85%
- Fair odds
- OKC -346
- WSH +346 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 126.6 – 117.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +102 | −53 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +307 Elo | OKC 85.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 76.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 77.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.8 | Points scored | 115.115th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 126.130th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.6 | Margin | −10.928th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.4 | Offense rating | 109.725th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 120.130th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.1 | Pace | 105.02nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–6 | Road vs home | 3–1227th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+102 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.