Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints34
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds9
Nets- Nic ClaxtonPoints23
- Dennis Smith Jr.Assists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–124
- Q41.1Mikal Bridges defensive rebound115–124
- Q45.0Jalen Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper115–124
- Q49.1Mikal Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2115–124
- Q49.1Mikal Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2115–123
- Q49.1Cam Thomas makes technical free throw115–122
- Q49.1Mark Daigneault technical foul (1st technical foul)115–121
- Q49.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personal foul115–121
- Q412.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving layup (Jalen Williams assists)115–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:49Spencer Dinwiddie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)OKC 8 – 9 BKN · BKN 26% → 32% +6BKN 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q16:49Dorian Finney-Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)OKC 12 – 14 BKN · BKN 28% → 34% +6BKN 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q15:41Dorian Finney-Smith makes 25-foot three point shot (Cameron Johnson assists)OKC 14 – 17 BKN · BKN 30% → 36% +6BKN 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q210:25Cam Thomas makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)OKC 25 – 44 BKN · BKN 70% → 76% +6BKN 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q28:49Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)OKC 26 – 49 BKN · BKN 79% → 84% +5BKN 79% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8.5
- OKC 80%
- Fair odds
- OKC -247
- BKN +247 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 121.2 – 114.3 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1596 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +113 | −1 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +237 Elo | OKC 79.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30122.0 | Points scored | 114.317th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 116.119th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | −1.822nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 113.915th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 115.723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.1 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–5 | Road vs home | 9–820th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–0 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.