New York Knicks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints39
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds19
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints27
- Tyus JonesAssists8
- Daniel GaffordRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–105
- Q40.0(00:00) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)121–105
- Q40.0Anthony Gill makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)121–105
- Q49.1Anthony Gill defensive rebound121–102
- Q412.1Malachi Flynn misses 17-foot step back jumpshot121–102
- Q431.1Quentin Grimes defensive rebound121–102
- Q434.0Eugene Omoruyi misses 24-foot step back jumpshot121–102
- Q448.1Malachi Flynn enters the game for Josh Hart121–102
- Q448.1Miles McBride personal foul121–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:42Julius Randle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 3 – 0 WSH · NY 69% → 74% +5NY 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q37:59Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot three point shot (Jordan Poole assists)NY 68 – 62 WSH · WSH 15% → 21% +6WSH 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q37:20Deni Avdija makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)NY 71 – 65 WSH · WSH 15% → 21% +6WSH 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q35:26Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot three point shot (Jordan Poole assists)NY 74 – 69 WSH · WSH 16% → 23% +7WSH 16% → 23%+7 pts
- Q35:05Julius Randle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)NY 77 – 69 WSH · NY 77% → 84% +7NY 77% → 84%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -8.5
- NY 80%
- Fair odds
- NY -219
- WSH +219 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 122.1 – 116.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1600 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | WSH and NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | −44 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +238 Elo | NY 79.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 115.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 126.230th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.0 | Margin | −10.828th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 109.925th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 120.130th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.8 | Pace | 105.12nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 15th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 3–1127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.