Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints39
- Anthony DavisAssists11
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints29
- Lauri MarkkanenAssists5
- John CollinsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–132
- Q45.1D'Angelo Russell makes driving layup125–132
- Q410.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2123–132
- Q410.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2123–131
- Q410.1Taurean Prince personal foul123–130
- Q414.1Christian Wood makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)123–130
- Q422.1Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 2 of 2120–130
- Q422.1Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 1 of 2120–129
- Q422.1Christian Wood personal foul120–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:50D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)LAL 74 – 68 UTAH · LAL 47% → 56% +9LAL 47% → 56%+9 pts
- Q39:08Lauri Markkanen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAL 76 – 73 UTAH · UTAH 43% → 53% +9UTAH 43% → 53%+9 pts
- Q37:29D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point shot (Max Christie assists)LAL 79 – 75 UTAH · LAL 42% → 51% +10LAL 42% → 51%+10 pts
- Q36:46John Collins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)LAL 79 – 80 UTAH · UTAH 55% → 64% +10UTAH 55% → 64%+10 pts
- Q49:14Keyonte George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)LAL 103 – 108 UTAH · UTAH 67% → 79% +12UTAH 67% → 79%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -6
- UTAH 73%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -210
- LAL +210 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 115.0 – 120.7 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −51 | +66 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +172 Elo | UTAH 72.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 116.013th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 118.323rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −2.323rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 112.918th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 115.121st of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.810th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–13 | Road vs home | 13–59th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.