Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Bradley BealPoints37
- Devin BookerAssists5
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds12
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints19
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Jarred VanderbiltRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–109
- Q418.0Chimezie Metu defensive rebound127–109
- Q420.2Jalen Hood-Schifino misses driving layup127–109
- Q443.1Yuta Watanabe out of bounds bad pass turnover127–109
- Q449.1Yuta Watanabe defensive rebound127–109
- Q451.1Jalen Hood-Schifino misses 20-foot pullup jump shot127–109
- Q41:04Skylar Mays offensive rebound127–109
- Q41:07Jarred Vanderbilt misses free throw 2 of 2127–109
- Q41:07Lakers offensive team rebound127–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:16Devin Booker makes 27-foot three pointerPHX 11 – 7 LAL · PHX 47% → 53% +6PHX 47% → 53%+6 pts
- Q18:32Bradley Beal makes 25-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 14 – 9 LAL · PHX 49% → 55% +6PHX 49% → 55%+6 pts
- Q18:09Bradley Beal makes 23-foot three point shot (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 17 – 9 LAL · PHX 55% → 62% +6PHX 55% → 62%+6 pts
- Q17:06Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)PHX 17 – 14 LAL · LAL 42% → 49% +7LAL 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q29:33Jarred Vanderbilt makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)PHX 40 – 34 LAL · LAL 33% → 40% +7LAL 33% → 40%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1.5
- LAL 56%
- Fair odds
- LAL -126
- PHX +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 115.3 – 117.0 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +48 | +11 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +41 Elo | LAL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 114.219th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 114.916th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.718th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 110.922nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 111.610th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.5 | Pace | 102.48th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 13–611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 0–3 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.