Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Bruce BrownPoints18
- Andrew NembhardAssists7
- Bruce BrownRebounds10
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints25
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–117
- Q45.1shot clock turnover109–117
- Q430.1Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 2 of 2109–117
- Q430.1Pacers offensive team rebound108–117
- Q430.1Andrew Nembhard misses free throw 1 of 2108–117
- Q430.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope shooting foul108–117
- Q435.1Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2108–117
- Q435.1Isaiah Jackson enters the game for Buddy Hield108–116
- Q435.1Jordan Nwora enters the game for Myles Turner108–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:16Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 66 – 62 DEN · IND 43% → 52% +9IND 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q39:41Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 69 – 65 DEN · IND 43% → 52% +9IND 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q36:02Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)IND 71 – 74 DEN · DEN 59% → 69% +10DEN 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q33:06Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)IND 75 – 81 DEN · DEN 69% → 78% +9DEN 69% → 78%+9 pts
- Q322.1Bennedict Mathurin makes 26-foot three pointer (Buddy Hield assists)IND 84 – 89 DEN · IND 16% → 24% +8IND 16% → 24%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- DEN 62%
- Fair odds
- DEN -185
- IND +185 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 118.7 – 123.4 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | +109 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +89 Elo | DEN 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 64.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30126.1 | Points scored | 116.213th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.4 | Points allowed | 111.02nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +5.17th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 117.27th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 112.011th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.3 | Pace | 99.128th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 16–44th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+109 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.