New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints30
- CJ McCollumAssists7
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds6
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Nikola JokicAssists14
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–125
- Q417.1Jose Alvarado out of bounds bad pass turnover113–125
- Q420.1E.J. Liddell defensive rebound113–125
- Q424.1Zeke Nnaji misses layup113–125
- Q444.1Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2113–125
- Q444.1Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 2112–125
- Q444.1Jay Huff shooting foul111–125
- Q458.0Collin Gillespie makes driving layup111–125
- Q41:11Dyson Daniels makes 1-foot driving dunk111–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:55Herbert Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 11 – 9 DEN · NO 43% → 50% +6NO 43% → 50%+6 pts
- Q16:14CJ McCollum makes 25-foot step back jumpshotNO 18 – 13 DEN · NO 50% → 56% +7NO 50% → 56%+7 pts
- Q14:27Nikola Jokic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)NO 20 – 22 DEN · DEN 52% → 59% +7DEN 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q11:32Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 25 – 29 DEN · NO 30% → 36% +6NO 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q11:11Peyton Watson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)NO 25 – 32 DEN · DEN 64% → 70% +6DEN 64% → 70%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -0.5
- DEN 47%
- Fair odds
- DEN -122
- NO +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 113.1 – 114.6 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +95 | +104 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +20 Elo | NO 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 55.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 115.913th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 111.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +4.98th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 117.08th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 112.011th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.6 | Pace | 99.129th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 15–45th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+95 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+104 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–1 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.