New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jonas ValanciunasPoints21
- CJ McCollumAssists8
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Warriors- Moses MoodyPoints21
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game141–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter141–105
- Q419.1Brandin Podziemski makes driving layup141–105
- Q422.1Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound141–103
- Q426.0E.J. Liddell misses 27-foot three point jumper141–103
- Q440.1Trayce Jackson-Davis makes two point shot141–103
- Q440.1Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound141–101
- Q443.2Gui Santos misses 25-foot three point jumper141–101
- Q41:03Naji Marshall makes driving layup141–101
- Q41:18Trayce Jackson-Davis makes tip shot139–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:04Herbert Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 3 – 0 GS · NO 57% → 64% +6NO 57% → 64%+6 pts
- Q110:45CJ McCollum makes 28-foot running pullup jump shot (Herbert Jones assists)NO 6 – 0 GS · NO 63% → 69% +6NO 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q110:15Jonas Valanciunas makes 27-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 9 – 2 GS · NO 65% → 71% +6NO 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q19:35Jonas Valanciunas makes 26-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)NO 12 – 4 GS · NO 67% → 73% +6NO 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q14:39Moses Moody makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)NO 26 – 18 GS · GS 21% → 27% +5GS 21% → 27%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -3.5
- NO 64%
- Fair odds
- NO -135
- GS +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 118.1 – 115.9 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +80 | +18 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +100 Elo | NO 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 117.110th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.2 | Margin | +0.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 114.812th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 114.622nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.015th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 11–1021st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 0–1 GS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.